Bracing for Battle: How Using War Games Can Help Bolster Wine Businesses

Develop strategies to anticipate, adapt and act before challenges become crises

The wine industry is facing a storm of challenges, from declining consumption to trade tariffs. These disruptions require more than reactive pivoting; they require strategic planning. So, how do companies prepare for the unthinkable to remain unsinkable? 

War Games are planning tools, used by military strategists and Fortune 500 companies, that simulate real world possibilities to develop tactics to navigate worst case scenarios. “War Game planning can provide wine brands with a structured approach to anticipate risks, pressure-test strategies and develop agile responses,” says Arjan Singh, author of Competitive Success: Building Strategies with Corporate War Games. Wine Industry Advisory asked Singh for examples.

WIN: What is a War Game example for a wine brand?

Singh: Consider a hypothetical mid-size wine producer, Terra Vino. Facing declining domestic sales and rising tariffs on exports to key markets, the company runs a war game. One team plays as Terra Vino’s leadership, another as a low-cost competitor and another as a government imposing tariffs. The game reveals that:

• Competitors are aggressively discounting, threatening Terra Vino’s positioning;
• Consumers are trading down to less expensive options in response to economic uncertainty; and
• A new regulatory environment could make certain markets inaccessible. 

Armed with these insights, Terra Vino pivots by diversifying distribution to less tariff-sensitive regions, launching a direct-to-consumer subscription model and reinforcing its premium branding to maintain margins.

WIN: On March 18, The Wine Trade Alliance advised American companies to “halt all shipments of wine, spirits and beer from the EU,” a response to U.S. government’s tactical move to charge 200% tariffs. How would you have “war gamed” this?

Singh: The statement is a strong and decisive move in response to the potential 200% tariffs. However, as a “war game” tactic, it primarily serves as an urgent warning rather than a strategic maneuver. 

A proper war game would have already modeled potential U.S.-EU trade conflicts and identified alternative supply chain solutions before tariffs were threatened. This could include sourcing from non-EU regions, adjusting inventory cycles or lobbying efforts ahead of time. Companies could have been guided on dynamic pricing models, alternative distribution routes or how to pass on costs to consumers in a manner that minimizes demand destruction.

Instead of just advising companies to halt shipments, a war game strategy might have involved coalition-building with EU counterparts to negotiate exemptions or secure phased tariff implementations. This would shift the industry from reacting to shaping policy outcomes. The statement could have framed the issue as a broader economic risk rather than just a trade dispute, positioning it as a potential consumer crisis (higher prices, reduced selection). 

WIN: What are other considerations?

Singh: Assuming past trends will continue. Consumer preferences and global trade policies are shifting. An example is the decline in wine consumption among younger consumers. War games could have tested alternative product strategies (low-alcohol, canned wine, RTDs) and marketing shifts before the trend forced knee-jerk reactions. Over reliance on a single market (e.g., China or the EU) without diversification can also be a critical risk. 

Finally, reacting instead of preparing and failing to align teams: companies that wait for disruption to occur before acting often lose ground to more prepared competitors. War gaming must be cross-functional, ensuring marketing, sales, finance and supply chain teams are coordinated.

WIN: Final thoughts?

Singh: The wine industry is at an inflection point, and brands that take a proactive, strategic approach will emerge stronger. By employing war gaming, wine businesses can create resilient strategies that turn uncertainty into opportunity.

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Melanie Young

Melanie Young is a certified specialist of wine and co-host/writer for The Connected Table LIVE, a global podcast featuring conversations with thought leaders in wine, food, spirits & hospitality. Her articles have appeared in Wine Industry News, Wine Enthusiast and Seven Fifty Daily. She travels frequently to report on wine regions, people and events. IG@theconnectedtable